Nordea’s research suggests EUR/USD upside is constrained in coming months by interest rate differentials and relative growth. The European Central Bank is seen closer to the end of its hiking cycle than the Federal Reserve, while Eurozone data remain softer than US figures. Nordea still projects a modest EUR/USD recovery over the longer term as US exceptionalism fades.

Rate gap and growth weigh on Euro

"We see limited upside for EUR/USD in the near term, as the ECB is likely closer to the end of its hiking cycle than the Fed and growth in the euro area continues to lag behind the US."

"Our baseline is for EUR/USD to trade broadly sideways over the next few months, before gradually moving higher as US exceptionalism fades and the Fed eventually starts to cut rates ahead of the ECB."

"A break below recent lows in EUR/USD would open for a move towards the 1.03–1.05 area, while a sustained move above 1.10 would likely require a clear shift in relative data surprises in favour of the euro area or a dovish repricing of the Fed."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)