哥伦比亚：决选风险与市场谨慎——法国兴业银行

哥伦比亚：决选风险与市场谨慎——法国兴业银行

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法国兴业银行（Societe Generale）的德夫·阿希什（Dev Ashish）在2026年5月31日投票前回顾了哥伦比亚总统选举动态，指出民调显示可能出现决选，统一的右翼在对阵历史联盟候选人时占优势。

法国兴业银行（Societe Generale）的Dev Ashish回顾了2026年5月31日哥伦比亚总统选举的动态，指出民调显示可能出现决选，统一的右翼在对阵历史公约候选人时占优势。报告强调了Paloma Valencia在未决定选民中的支持度不断上升、持续存在的分裂风险以及较高的制度和财政压力，这些因素使市场对哥伦比亚资产保持谨慎态度。

统一右翼在决选中占优

“民调显示决选动态有利于统一右翼：Valencia或De la Espriella在第二轮对阵Cepeda时表现更佳，分裂是主要风险。”

“Valencia支持度上升：未决定选民正在向她集中，而Cepeda似乎接近支持上限。”

“目前赔率略微偏向Valencia，但由于CNE（国家选举委员会）调查，民调可信度受到影响。”

“制度和财政压力较高：央行紧张局势和有限的财政空间加剧了市场敏感性。”

（本文由人工智能工具协助生成，编辑审核。）

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