加拿大:劳动力市场结构性紧缩加剧 – 加拿大皇家银行
加拿大皇家银行(RBC)经济学家内森·詹森(Nathan Janzen)和郑安妮(Annie Zheng)指出,加拿大当前的高失业率掩盖了长期劳动力供应的挑战。

加拿大皇家银行(RBC)经济学家内森·詹森(Nathan Janzen)和郑安妮(Annie Zheng)指出,加拿大当前较高的失业率掩盖了长期劳动力供应的挑战。他们指出,退休人数激增,并将在2030年代保持高位,而35岁以下的劳动力如果没有移民将会缩减。预计到2026年,可用劳动力相对于人口将出现收缩,随着时间推移劳动力状况将趋紧。

退休和人口结构收紧供应

“较高的失业率意味着目前加拿大的劳动力短缺问题不如过去严重,但在表面之下,长期结构性劳动力供应阻力仍在积累。”

“每月退休人数几乎翻倍,达到约25,500人/月,并将在2030年代保持高位。”

“与此同时,加拿大35岁以下潜在劳动力人口(即不考虑移民)在未来五年内每年将减少约186,000人。”

“随着越来越多的人口达到退休年龄,2026年可用劳动力规模将首次在疫情之外的年份出现比人口更大幅度的下降。”

“但随着每个工人的劳动力市场状况改善(即失业率下降),与新劳动力供应减少相关的挑战将逐步显现。”

(本文由人工智能工具协助生成,编辑审核。)

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