加拿大:能源推动的CPI上涨支持加拿大央行维持利率不变 – 加拿大皇家银行
加拿大皇家银行(RBC)经济学家Abbey Xu指出,加拿大4月份通胀加速,主要由于能源价格上涨和基数效应减弱,而潜在压力仍然受到控制。

加拿大皇家银行(RBC)经济学家Abbey Xu指出,4月份加拿大通胀加速,主要由于能源价格上涨和基数效应减弱,而潜在压力保持受控。核心指标如CPI-trim和CPI-median有所缓解,整体价格压力正在减弱。Xu总结称,油价上涨不会重新点燃系统性通胀,预计加拿大央行(BoC)将维持利率不变直至2026年。

能源推高整体通胀,核心保持受控

“然而,整体通胀的上升仍然高估了潜在的价格压力。”

“包括CPI-trim和CPI-median在内的核心通胀指标,4月份同比平均为2.1%,而3月份为2.3%。”

“该报告与我们更广泛的观点一致,即油价上涨将推高整体通胀并削弱家庭购买力,但不太可能重新引发系统性通胀压力。”

“尽管某些类别,特别是食品和住房,仍对通胀贡献较大,但随着劳动力市场疲软,整体价格压力正在缓解。”

“能源价格维持高位时间越长,上行通胀风险可能越大,但总体来看,4月份数据支持我们的基本判断,即加拿大央行将在2026年剩余时间内维持利率不变。”

(本文由人工智能工具协助生成,编辑审核。)

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