加拿大：早期复苏观点 – 加拿大皇家银行

加拿大：早期复苏观点 – 加拿大皇家银行

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加拿大皇家银行（RBC）经济学家克莱尔·范（Claire Fan）认为，近期加拿大GDP的收缩并不意味着经济衰退，并指出C.D. Howe研究所商业周期委员会也持相同观点。她强调，人口增长的剧烈波动扭曲了传统的GDP读数。

加拿大皇家银行（RBC）经济学家克莱尔·范（Claire Fan）认为，近期加拿大GDP的收缩并不意味着经济衰退，她指出C.D. Howe研究所商业周期委员会也持相同观点。她强调，人口增长的剧烈波动扭曲了传统的GDP读数。范指出，人均GDP趋势更能反映家庭状况，目前显示加拿大正处于从2023年初开始的经济疲软期的早期复苏阶段。

人均数据重塑衰退判断

“加拿大近几个季度连续的国内生产总值收缩引发了人们对经济是否进入衰退的担忧。”

“我们不支持这一观点，C.D. Howe研究所商业周期委员会也不支持，该委员会负责正式确定加拿大的衰退时期。”

“关注GDP增长之外的一个核心原因是加拿大经历了人口增长的剧烈波动。”

“值得注意的是，过去两个季度的GDP下降均与人口下降同时发生——这是自1950年代以来的首次记录。”

“现在情况正好相反：表面GDP看起来比实际情况更糟，而加拿大正处于从2023年初开始的经济疲软期的早期复苏阶段。”

（本文由人工智能工具协助生成，并由编辑审核。）

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