加元:政策重新定价导致涨势趋缓 – 汇丰银行
汇丰分析师认为,加元(CAD)在中东冲突期间表现优于大多数G10货币,但现在似乎正在失去动力。

汇丰分析师认为,加拿大元(CAD)在中东冲突期间表现优于大多数G10货币,但现在似乎正在失去动力。他们预计未来几周CAD的强势将有所缓和,尽管油价高企仍提供支持,但相对货币政策和加拿大央行(BoC)的预期将对CAD表现起到更决定性的作用。

预计CAD韧性将减弱

“CAD在中东冲突期间表现优于大多数G10货币。”

“这种超额表现开始减弱,我们预计未来几周动能将进一步放缓。”

“尽管油价高企应为CAD提供一定支撑,尤其是相对于能源进口的G10货币,但我们认为相对货币政策可能是更具影响力的驱动因素。”

“具体而言,我们的经济学家预计加拿大央行(BoC)将在2026年和2027年维持利率不变,同时认识到如果能源供应中断持续且通胀预期显著上升,利率路径存在鹰派风险。”

“鉴于市场目前预计今年加拿大央行将加息约两次(彭博,2026年3月26日),短期内CAD的风险偏向下行,尤其是在劳动力市场状况进一步疲软的情况下。”

(本文由人工智能工具协助生成,编辑审核。)

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