美联储：通胀风险与政策按兵不动 – 道明证券

美联储：通胀风险与政策按兵不动 – 道明证券

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道明证券（TD Securities）经济学家奥斯卡·穆尼奥斯（Oscar Munoz）和伊莱·尼尔（Eli Nir）指出，6 月 FOMC 会议纪要表现出鹰派倾向，大多数与会者准备在供应驱动的通胀持续的情况下加息。

道明证券（TD Securities）经济学家奥斯卡·穆诺兹（Oscar Munoz）和埃利·尼尔（Eli Nir）指出，6 月份的 FOMC 会议纪要表现出鹰派倾向，大多数与会者准备在供应驱动的通胀持续时加息。他们仍预计美联储将在 2026 年之前维持利率不变，因为产出增长停滞，伊朗冲突带来的滞胀风险使通胀保持高位，同时劳动力市场趋于稳定。

鹰派纪要但政策保持稳定

“上周公布的 6 月 FOMC 会议纪要表现出鹰派倾向，强调了通胀风险，并显示大多数与会者如果供应驱动的价格压力持续，即使劳动力市场稳定，也会支持加息。”

“尽管我们继续预计美联储将无限期按兵不动，但未来几个月较高的通胀可能足以促使加息，即使劳动力市场未加速。”

“我们预计美联储将在我们的预测期内维持利率不变。”

“通胀在今年剩余时间内应保持高位，劳动力市场已趋于稳定，使 FOMC 能够将重点转向其通胀使命。”

“如果美联储今年采取行动，我们认为加息的可能性大于降息。”

（本文由人工智能工具协助生成，并由编辑审核。 了解更多。）

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