美元:FOMC会议前需求增加 – BNY
BNY的Bob Savage指出,美元(USD)在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议前需求增强,包括三个月来首次连续五天净买入,以及美元现金和短期工具的使用增加。

BNY的Bob Savage指出,美元(USD)在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议前需求增强,包括三个月来首次连续五天净买入,以及美元现金和短期工具使用的增加。他强调了四月份的风险偏好氛围,但认为美联储(Fed)的谨慎态度和全球供应压力限制了美元的下行空间,同时外国加息可能出现的政策错误也支持美元的韧性。

美元需求在FOMC前趋于坚挺

“美元正以良好态势进入FOMC决议,刚刚录得过去三个月内首次连续五天净买入。”

“以美元现金和短期工具(CAST)作为美元需求的替代指标,我们也观察到随着美联储决议临近,需求加速增长。”

“自三月以来资金流动较为混合,但我们强调,仍有大量美元CAST处于观望状态,可能会重新转入基础资产。”

“我们未见决议本身有实质性变化,美联储将视美元为当前政策的重要因素;鉴于现有的通胀风险,考虑到当前全球供应压力,采取鸽派倾向以限制下行风险可能更为合适。”

“相反,其他地区的加息可能是政策错误,这也限制了仅凭利差美元的下行风险。”

(本文借助人工智能工具生成,并由编辑审核。)

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