美元:基调坚挺,通胀乏力 – BBH
布朗兄弟哈里曼(BBH)的埃利亚斯·哈达德(Elias Haddad)指出,由于美国(US)数据显示通胀降温停滞且顽固的通胀指标远离美联储(Fed)2%的目标,美元(USD)保持坚挺。

布朗兄弟哈里曼(BBH)的埃利亚斯·哈达德指出,由于美国(US)数据显示通胀降温停滞且顽固的通胀指标远离美联储(Fed)2%的目标,美元(USD)表现坚挺。哈达德预计美元将在美国劳动力需求改善和美联储更为紧缩的立场支持下小幅走高,市场关注焦点转向5月生产者价格指数(PPI)及关键服务业组成部分。

美元受顽固通胀背景支撑

“美元表现坚挺。我们预计美元将在美国宏观环境中劳动力需求改善和顽固通胀支持更为紧缩的美联储政策立场下小幅走高。”

“昨日公布的美国5月CPI数据显示,通胀降温趋势已停滞。符合市场预期,整体CPI同比加速至4.2%(此前为3.8%),为2023年4月以来最高,主要受汽油价格上涨影响。核心CPI同比也符合预期,为2.9%(此前为2.8%),但环比上涨0.2%,较预期的0.3%低0.1个百分点(此前为0.4%)。”

“重要的是,剔除极端价格波动的CPI指标,如核心服务业(不含住房)CPI、亚特兰大联储顽固CPI、克利夫兰联储16%截尾均值CPI和克利夫兰联储中位数CPI,正进一步远离美联储2%的目标。”

“美国5月PPI即将公布(伦敦时间13:30,纽约时间8:30)。需关注剔除贸易、运输和仓储的PPI服务业数据,因为其部分反映在核心服务业(不含住房)PCE中。”

(本文由人工智能工具协助生成,编辑审核。)

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