美元:年底预测修正反映出美元走强 – 华侨银行
华侨银行(OCBC)的沈慕祥和Christopher Wong指出,近期与人工智能相关的股票疲软提振了避险需求,并支撑了美元。

华侨银行(OCBC)的Sim Moh Siong和Christopher Wong指出,近期与人工智能相关的股票疲软提振了避险需求,支撑了美元。他们现预测欧元/美元年底将至1.11,美元/日元将至163,上调了美元(USD)前景,从区间震荡转为适度走强,预计美元指数(DXY)有2–3%的上行空间,除非油价或美国经济增长出现大幅意外。

修订后的年底目标及美元指数上行空间

“鹰派的美联储信号提振美元,将我们的观点从区间震荡调整为适度走强。”

“新的美元预测:欧元/美元年底至1.11(此前为1.18),美元/日元年底至163(此前为155)。”

“美元指数突破目标为2至3%的上行;若要达到5%的涨幅,则需油价飙升或美国经济过热情景。美元走强及利差扩大通常对低收益货币如瑞郎和日元压力最大。”

“顺周期的套息交易仍有表现空间,但贸易韧性将取决于选择合适的融资货币。”

(本文由人工智能工具协助生成,编辑审核。)

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