美元/日元：干预风险与日本央行路径指引下行 – 华侨银行

美元/日元：干预风险与日本央行路径指引下行 – 华侨银行

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大华银行策略师沈慕祥和黄志强指出，美元/日元在突破160后出现的急剧回调，很可能反映了在流动性稀缺的黄金周期间，日元的实际买入干预。

大华银行策略师沈慕祥和黄志强指出，美元/日元在突破160后出现的急剧回调，很可能反映了在黄金周流动性稀缺的情况下，日元（JPY）实际买入的干预。他们预计，如果油价维持高位，守住160将需要更大规模的行动，短期内该货币对有望在150至155区间波动，并维持2026年底美元/日元目标价为155，预计日本央行6月将加息。

当局倾向于压制160关口，而日本央行落后

“突破160后出现的急剧回调引起了市场关注。”

“守住160关口将需要更大规模的行动，尤其是在油价持续高企的情况下。”

“进一步的干预可能会将美元/日元推入150至155区间，短期内提振亚洲货币。”

“不过，我们仍保持谨慎，维持2026年底美元/日元目标价为155。”

“6月日本央行加息的可能性现已增加，但政策仍显滞后，限制了日元的支撑力度。”

（本文借助人工智能工具撰写，并由编辑审核。）

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