美元:信心数据和美联储发言人备受关注 – 道明证券
道明证券(TD Securities)全球策略团队指出,市场现在关注特朗普总统的国情咨文和多位美联储官员的讲话。该行预计,会议委员会消费者信心指数将低于市场共识,预期为85.5,原因是情绪指标疲软、股市波动和汽油价格上涨等逆风因素。

道明证券(TD Securities)全球策略团队指出,市场现在关注特朗普总统的国情咨文和多位美联储官员的讲话。该行预计,会议委员会消费者信心指数将低于市场共识,预期为85.5,原因是情绪指标疲软、股市波动和汽油价格上涨等逆风因素。

信心和政策事件引导美元

"周二,市场的主要关注点将是特朗普总统在东部时间晚上9点的国情咨文。在演讲之前,市场可能会保持波动,因为他们试图在事件之前进行布局,讨论的主题包括经济、与伊朗的紧张关系以及最高法院对IEEPA合法性的裁决。在当天,Goolsbee、Bostic、Waller、Cook、Barkin和Collins都将发表讲话。"

"在数据方面,会议委员会信心指数将是当天的关键数据发布,我们预计其将低于市场共识,预期为85.5。2年期国债拍卖也将在下午进行,考虑到收益率处于自10月以来的交易区间底部,可能会面临困难。"

"我们预计2月份消费者信心将反弹至85.5,低于市场共识,因其在1月份急剧下降至84.5(共识:87.0)。尽管本月可能会有一些反弹,但Morning Consult的数据并未显示出2月初情绪有显著改善。"

"本月上半月,股市波动和汽油价格上涨都对信心产生了负面影响。"劳动力差异"将是关键,因为它显示出与纽约联邦储备银行一致的就业寻找预期下降。"

"尽管近期劳动力市场趋于稳定,但招聘仍然低迷,这将使美联储鸽派保持警惕。"

(本文由人工智能工具协助创建,并由编辑审核。)

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