New Zealand Dollar advances as US Dollar weakens on soft data, Fed tone
By Akhtar Faruqui
Updated: 2 Jul 2026
POPULAR ARTICLES
NZD/USD has recovered its recent losses from the previous day, trading around 0.5680 during the early European hours on Thursday.
- NZD/USD rises as the US Dollar declines following a less hawkish tone than expected from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
- Soft US economic data cooled hawkish Fed sentiment amid slowing growth and easing inflation.
- The New Zealand Dollar may face challenges as falling oil prices lower inflation risks.
NZD/USD has recovered its recent losses from the previous day, trading around 0.5680 during the early European hours on Thursday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) declines following a less hawkish tone than expected from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh at Wednesday's ECB Forum on Central Banking. Warsh opted not to provide explicit guidance regarding the central bank's upcoming July policy decision. While he acknowledged that inflation remains too elevated and reiterated a firm commitment to the Fed's 2% target and institutional independence, his overall tone was perceived as less hawkish than anticipated.
The Greenback also faces headwinds from easing risk aversion amid a wave of optimistic geopolitical developments out of the Middle East. Qatari officials reported "positive progress" in the ongoing negotiations between US and Iranian diplomats regarding a memorandum of understanding, noting that both sides have agreed to continue their dialogue. Reinforcing this positive sentiment, US Vice President JD Vance stated that the discussions in Doha are going well and indicated that formal talks regarding the nuclear issue are expected to commence in the near future.
Moreover, a batch of soft US economic data further cooled the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed outlook. June’s ADP Employment Change report showed that private payrolls grew by just 98K, missing Wall Street's 113K forecast and slowing from May's 122K increase. Additionally, the manufacturing sector showed signs of cooling as the ISM Manufacturing PMI edged lower to 53.3, missing the 54.0 consensus estimate. Together, this cooling data and diplomatic progress have investors shifting their full attention to the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for fresh insights into the labor market and the Fed’s policy path.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) may face challenges against the US Dollar amid easing oil prices and easing inflation concerns, reducing expectations of an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Traders will likely observe the release of New Zealand's consumer spending data for May, due on Friday.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
More than a million users rely on FXStreet for real-time market data, charting tools, expert insights, and forex news. Its comprehensive economic calendar and educational webinars help traders stay informed and make calculated decisions. FXStreet is supported by a team of about 60 professionals, split between the Barcelona headquarters and various global regions.
Read More
