Rabobank's Senior Global Strategist Michael Every underlines that escalating geopolitical tensions could drive significant volatility in energy markets. He points to rising frictions involving Iran, Israel and the US, and suggests conflict timing remains uncertain. Every argues that once hostilities begin, the impact on energy prices will be notable, with scenarios ranging from sharply higher to sharply lower Oil benchmarks depending on the outcome.

War risk clouds crude price outlook

"In the Middle East, 11 US F-22s are now on the ground in Israel, as Reuters reports Iran is close to buying Chinese supersonic anti-ship missiles."

"Embassies are sending warnings to their citizens around the region; Turkey is preparing to prevent an Iranian refugee surge at its border."

"It remains to be seen when this war might begin --today, or after market close Friday?-- or what then happens, but such an outcome looks more likely than a sudden Peace For Our Time deal."

"Either way, the impact on energy prices will be notable – either sharply up or sharply down."

"Russia threatened the UK and France with nuclear strikes after alleging the pair were trying to get a nuclear weapon or dirty bomb to Ukraine: the financial media didn’t notice. It warned of plots to destroy gas pipelines through the Black Sea, following that of the Druzhba oil pipeline to Slovakia this week, which the financial media also didn’t notice."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)