德国商业银行利率团队预计，油价走高和疲弱的增长信号将主导周四的欧洲央行（ECB）会议。7 月加息实际上已被排除，而市场已完全消化 9 月再次上调 25 个基点的可能性。预计拉加德将强调通胀风险，但不会提前承诺，因为周五公布的欧元区初值 PMI 可能显示复苏仍然脆弱。
"欧洲央行将是本周四的焦点，随后是下周的美联储决议。"
"本月可以有把握地排除加息。"
"不过，反弹的油价使得欧洲央行 9 月再次加息仍在预期之中，市场也已完全消化这一预期（+24bp）。"
"尽管拉加德可能会就通胀风险采取坚定措辞，但鉴于增长面临的逆风不断上升、局势仍在变化，她不太可能提前承诺 9 月加息。"
"本周的数据可能会表明，经济复苏仍然遥远。"
（本文由人工智能工具协助生成，并经编辑审核。了解更多。）
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