人民币:贸易数据支持货币走强 – 法国兴业银行
法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)指出,中国5月贸易顺差扩大至1054亿美元,主要受人工智能相关设备带动的出口同比激增19.4%推动。

法国兴业银行指出,中国5月份贸易顺差扩大至1054亿美元,出口同比激增19.4%,主要由人工智能相关设备推动。他们认为这一背景支持人民币升值,尽管近期看涨势头已停滞,监管部门在有针对性的宽松、加强资本管控和鼓励出口收入留存境外之间保持平衡。

人工智能驱动的出口支撑人民币韧性

“中国5月份贸易顺差扩大至1054.3亿美元,高于4月份的848.2亿美元,超过预期。出口同比增长19.4%,由人工智能驱动,计算机及零部件出口激增66%,集成电路海外销售更是翻倍。”

“数据支持人民币升值,尽管我们看到上周看涨势头已停止。人民币仍是亚洲表现最佳的货币,充当区域锚和避险货币,我们密切关注中国人民银行每日中间价,以捕捉监管层在有针对性宽松与加强资本管控之间的信号。”

“如前所述,监管机构正推动银行加大美元存款动员(允许利率高于SOFR),以鼓励企业将出口收入留存境外,借此抵消人民币升值压力,而非进行公开干预。”

“与此同时,跨境资金流动监管趋严,据报道对非法境外交易的打击重启,对无牌经纪商的监管加强,以及对不合规账户的强制关闭,显示出明显的资本留存偏向。”

(本文由人工智能工具协助生成,编辑审核。)

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