日元：法国兴业银行称日本央行路径指向中期涨势

日元：法国兴业银行称日本央行路径指向中期涨势

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法国兴业银行（Societe Generale）的金健崎及其团队表示，日本央行将利率上调至1.0%仅标志着中性区间的底部，但关于通胀上行风险的新表述支持进一步的正常化。

法国兴业银行（Societe Generale）的金健崎及其团队表示，日本央行将利率上调至1.0%仅标志着中性区间的底部，但关于通胀上行风险的新表述支持进一步的正常化。他们的内部观点是每季度加息25个基点，到2027年底达到2%的终端利率，这应有利于日元从低廉水平逐步升值。

日本央行正常化被视为支持货币

“我们的内部观点是政策利率将以每季度25个基点的节奏上升，到明年年底达到2%的终端政策点。”

“这比中性区间的中点高出25个基点，但在美国和欧元区其他条件不变的情况下，政策利率翻倍意味着中期内日元将从低廉水平升值。”

“从战前约211个基点的低点扩大至265个基点的两年期美国国债/日本国债利差，抵消了日元与油价相关性破裂的困惑。”

（本文借助人工智能工具生成，并由编辑审核。）

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