日元:油价下跌缓解了日元的压力 – BBH
布朗兄弟哈里曼的埃利亚斯·哈达德指出,美元/日元汇率交易于其数十年高点之下,但他认为近期油价下跌应能缓解日元的一些压力。

布朗兄弟哈里曼的埃利亚斯·哈达德指出,美元/日元汇率交易于其数十年高点之下,但他认为近期油价下跌应能缓解日元的部分压力。他认为该货币对有下行空间,而日本受控的通胀表明日本央行(BOJ)在紧缩周期中并未落后。

温和的通胀使日本央行保持耐心

“美元/日元维持在161.00以上,交易价略低于2024年7月达到的161.95数十年高点。在我们看来,原油价格的下跌减轻了日元的部分压力,可能有助于推动美元/日元下探至155.00。”

“日本5月通胀保持温和,符合市场预期。整体CPI同比上涨0.1个百分点至1.5%,受政府对能源的补贴控制。”

“结论:日本温和的基础通胀环境表明日本央行在紧缩政策上并未落后。掉期曲线预计未来12个月内将加息近50个基点,达到1.50%,这一预期大致合理。”

(本文借助人工智能工具撰写,并由编辑审核。)

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