• WTI trades at a three-week high of $102 amid fears of an extension of the blockade.
• The UAE left OPEC, posing a challenge to the oil-producing organization.
• US President Trump threatened Iran to “get smart soon” and sign a nuclear deal.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil is currently trading near $102 per barrel, its highest level in roughly three weeks. This rise comes amidst reports that United States (US) President Donald Trump is in discussions with various oil companies about maintaining a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz unless Iran takes corrective actions.

On Tuesday, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced its decision to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which poses a significant challenge to the Oil producer organization. This move occurs amid an unprecedented energy crisis stemming from the conflict between the US and Iran, highlighting growing discord among some Gulf nations.

The UAE's exit as one of OPEC's largest producers has weakened the organization's control over global oil supplies and deepened the rift between the UAE and its neighbor, Saudi Arabia, which effectively “leads” OPEC. This doesn’t really affect prices in the short term and could actually drive them down over the longer term, but it still adds to the fog of uncertainty.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the four-hour chart, WTI US Oil trades at $102.05, extending a strong bullish bias as price holds well above both the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at roughly $96.09 and $91.81. The short-term uptrend is steep, with buyers pressing toward the next cap at $102.70, although the Relative Strength Index (14) around 72 signals overbought conditions that hint at a corrective pause even within the prevailing bullish structure.

On the downside, initial support emerges at $101.17, with a deeper cushion at $100.45 and further structural backing near $99.14, all of which sit comfortably above the 20-period SMA and reinforce the broader advance while they hold. On the topside, a clear break above $102.70 would open the way for further gains, whereas failure to overcome this resistance could see WTI retreat toward the clustered supports, testing the durability of the current bullish phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)