亚洲:2026年经济展望与市场策略 – 星展银行
星展银行研究团队提供了对2026年亚洲和东盟经济前景的见解,强调尽管全球贸易紧张局势,经济仍展现出韧性

星展银行研究团队提供了对2026年亚洲和东盟经济前景的见解,强调尽管全球贸易紧张局势,依然展现出韧性。

亚洲经济前景的韧性

"这一年以对全球贸易和基于多边规则的秩序的前所未有的恐惧开始,最终以谨慎的宽慰结束。事实证明,这是一场韧性的考验,全球经济总体以及贸易密集型的亚洲迄今为止表现良好。"

"美国的贸易限制并没有如最初担心的那样全面和繁重。关税以各种形式出现,特点是不同的税率、豁免和宽限期;所有这些都在无休止的谈判中。似乎这些发展并没有削弱美国消费者的消费欲望。因此,今年大多数亚洲国家对美国的出口增长强劲。"

"我们今年的缩写TOTUS,即美国以外的贸易,带我们进入解释意外韧性的第二个因素。"

"随着各自路径的绘制,投资流动得以重新校准。马来西亚、新加坡和越南等国已经看到了创纪录的外商直接投资;我们预计在2026年及以后会有更多潜力。货币条件是积极的;食品和燃料通胀不是问题。该地区正以减少的焦虑迎接新的一年。"

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