英镑/美元：在英国央行降息风险上升的情况下，估值偏高 – 汇丰银行

英镑/美元：在英国央行降息风险上升的情况下，估值偏高 – 汇丰银行

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汇丰全球研究认为，英镑/美元在利率差异方面显得昂贵，因为市场越来越预期英国央行将采取更鸽派的立场。在2月份的狭窄投票决定维持政策后，英镑仍然承压

汇丰全球研究认为，英镑/美元在利率差异方面显得昂贵，因为市场越来越多地定价英国央行的鸽派立场。英镑在2月份以微弱票数决定维持政策后继续承压。该行认为即将发布的英国劳动力数据和3月的英国央行会议至关重要，市场预计降息25个基点的概率很高，并关注2026年的指引。

随着降息概率上升，英镑脆弱

“英镑/美元相对于利率差异显得富裕，因为对英国央行（BoE）更加鸽派立场的预期持续增长。”

“自2月份以5-4的微弱票数决定维持当前政策以来，英镑一直承压。”

“即将发布的英国劳动力市场数据将在英国央行3月19日会议前几个小时发布，这一数据非常重要，市场目前预计降息25个基点的概率约为80%（彭博社，2月24日）。”

“我们认为，英镑的关键考虑因素将是英国央行是否在2026年剩余时间内表示愿意进一步降息。”

(本文由人工智能工具生成，并经过编辑审核。)

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