铜价创下历史新高 – 荷兰国际集团
铜在伦敦金属交易所(LME)昨日创下新高,超过了2024年5月创下的11,104.50美元/吨的前高。荷兰国际集团(ING)的商品专家Ewa Manthey和Warren Patterson指出,支持性的宏观背景、美元(USD)走弱、降息和低库存最近推动了工业金属价格的上涨。

铜在伦敦金属交易所(LME)昨日创下新高,超过了2024年5月创下的11,104.50美元/吨的前高。荷兰国际集团(ING)的商品专家Ewa Manthey和Warren Patterson指出,支持性的宏观背景、美元(USD)走弱、降息和低库存最近推动了工业金属价格的上涨。

中国买家显示出价格敏感性迹象

"铜在基础金属中表现突出,年初至今价格上涨超过25%,有望迎来自2017年以来的最佳年份。铜价因供应中断加剧而上涨,最近印尼巨型格拉斯伯格矿的自由港公司宣布不可抗力,以及特朗普与习近平会晤前的风险偏好情绪。随着供应挑战和贸易乐观情绪上升,铜的前景开始变得更加光明,2025年和2026年的供需平衡正在收紧。"

"然而,需求破坏的风险不容忽视,因为中国买家显示出价格敏感性,这可能会对铜价的上涨形成上限。交易者为进口金属支付的洋山溢价是中国实际需求的关键指标,目前徘徊在35美元/吨左右,自9月底以来从5月份100美元/吨上方的年初至今的高点下跌超过20%。"

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