英镑/美元在英国央行决策前维持在1.3000上方 – BBH
英镑/美元维持在关键支撑位1.3000之上,BBH外汇分析师报告称。

英镑/美元维持在关键支撑位1.3000之上,BBH外汇分析师报告称。

预计英国央行将维持4.00%的政策利率

"英国央行(BOE)预计将把政策利率维持在4.00%,并重申其对进一步降息的“渐进和谨慎”态度(伦敦时间12:00,纽约时间7:00)。掉期市场暗示今天降息25个基点至3.75%的概率为30%。共识认为货币政策委员会的投票将出现6-3的分裂(与去年9月的7-2相比),支持维持利率不变,持不同意见者支持降息25个基点。"

"我们预计英国央行将在英国预算(预计于11月26日公布)之后再恢复降息。英国通胀仍接近英国央行2%目标的两倍,领先指标显示英国第三季度实际GDP增长(预计于11月13日公布)将超出英国央行0.3%的季度环比预测。预测更新将在11月的货币政策报告中与今天的政策决定一起发布。"

"预计即将到来的预算的财政拖累将可能为英国央行提供更多降息的空间,超出当前市场定价(未来12个月内50个基点)。为了填补高达350亿英镑的财政缺口,预计英国政府将优先考虑增税而非削减开支。底线:英镑在交叉汇率中将继续表现不佳。"

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