加元：增长前景持续恶化 – 荷兰国际集团

加元：增长前景持续恶化 – 荷兰国际集团

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除了受到央行鸽派降息影响的新西兰元外，加拿大元（CAD）在八月份是表现最差的G10货币，荷兰国际集团（ING）外汇分析师弗朗切斯科-佩索莱（Francesco Pesole）指出。

除了受到央行鸽派降息影响的新西兰元外，加拿大元（CAD）在八月份是表现最差的G10货币，荷兰国际集团（ING）外汇分析师弗朗切斯科-佩索莱（Francesco Pesole）指出。

市场仅预计加拿大央行将在12月降息

“我们对加元相对于欧元和欧洲货币，以及其他商品货币持看跌态度，因为加拿大经济前景恶化，意味着加拿大央行还有更多降息空间。”

“昨天有报道称，由于对美国的出口下降，加拿大第二季度的经常账户赤字创下历史新高。这增加了今天第二季度GDP低于预期的风险：预计年化季度收缩为0.7%。”

“市场仅预计加拿大央行将在12月降息，但我们认为9月或10月降息的可能性很高，并在2026年再次降息，最终达到2.25%的终端利率。鉴于我们对美元的看跌预期，我们不期望美元/加元会有太多支撑，但我们仍然预计加元将落后于其他G10货币。”

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