ING strategist Francesco Pesole notes the UK economy ended 2025 on a weak footing, with softness in construction and business investment. With the Bank of England already aware of this slowdown, upcoming jobs and inflation data are seen as key. ING expects BoE rate cuts in March and June and maintains a broadly bullish stance on EUR/GBP, targeting 0.88 in the short term.

BoE cuts seen supporting cross higher

"Given we already had data for October and November, there's not a huge amount of new information here for the Bank of England. It had already concluded that the economy ended 2025 on a weaker footing."

"For the Bank, next week's jobs and inflation data will be much more instructive. So long as the recent weakness in hiring, coupled with the sharp slowdown in wage growth, continues, we expect a March cut from the BoE, followed by another move in June."

"Our view remains broadly bullish on EUR/GBP on the back of this and of our call for two BoE cuts by June: 0.88 remains a very realistic short-term target."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)