TD Securities analysts expect the FOMC to maintain current interest rates, with a cautious approach supported by recent data. They note that while Chair Powell may not commit to near-term rate cuts, the median official still anticipates easing this year. The analysts suggest that the FOMC meeting will not significantly impact the USD, and they maintain a bias to sell into any rallies.

FOMC meeting insights and USD outlook

"We expect the FOMC to keep rates on hold, with risk management cuts over and policy closer to neutral. Recent data support the FOMC adopting a cautious approach. There is now a higher burden to justify cuts."

"The FOMC meeting this week is unlikely to be a big driver of the USD with Powell remaining non-committal and data dependent. Structurally, our bias remains to sell into any USD rallies."

"Chair Powell is noncommittal towards the timing of future cuts. However, he notes that the Committee is biased towards further easing this year. He remains data dependent and notes that as of now, risks are balanced."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)