纽元遭遇疲软劳动力数据开局不稳后反弹 – BBH
新西兰元(NZD)在第三季度疲软的劳动数据表明就业减弱后恢复,市场完全预期纽储行将在11月降息,布朗兄弟哈里曼(BBH)外汇分析师报告称。

新西兰元(NZD)在第三季度疲软的劳动数据表明就业减弱后恢复,市场完全预期纽储行将在11月降息,布朗兄弟哈里曼(BBH)外汇分析师报告称。

随着劳动市场失去动能,预计纽储行将放松政策

"NZD先是波动,然后反弹。新西兰第三季度疲软的劳动市场数据支持进一步的纽储行放松政策。第三季度就业环比增长为0%,而第二季度为-0.2%。市场共识预期增长0.1%,而纽储行则预计没有增长。"

"失业率按预期上升0.1个百分点至5.3%(为2016年第四季度以来的最高水平),而参与率下降0.2个百分点至70.3%,这表明劳动市场在失去活力(参与人数减少)和力量(失业人数增加)。私人工资与市场共识和纽储行的预测一致,第三季度环比增长0.5%,而第二季度为0.6%。"

"下一次纽储行的政策决定/货币政策声明将在11月26日,市场完全预期将降息25个基点至2.25%。掉期市场暗示政策利率将在接下来的六个月内降至2.00%至2.25%之间,这将使其接近纽储行估计的中性区间的下限(1.60%-4.20%)。无论如何,全球经济活动的韧性抵消了对纽储行放松政策预期对NZD的拖累。"

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