欧元：乌克兰停火希望助力欧元 – 荷兰国际集团

欧元：乌克兰停火希望助力欧元 – 荷兰国际集团

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特朗普对乌克兰-俄罗斯停火的乐观情绪可能推动了欧元的强势，这与美元在此问题上的立场完全相反

特朗普对乌克兰-俄罗斯停火的乐观情绪可能推动了欧元的强势，这与美元在此问题上的立场完全相反。ING的外汇分析师弗朗切斯科-佩索莱指出，如果停火成为更具实质性的前景，欧元/美元和欧元/瑞士法郎预计将成为欧元升值的主要渠道。

风险平衡仍倾向于1.170以上

"瑞士法郎继续受到美瑞贸易关系恶化的影响。瑞士总统昨日从华盛顿访问归来，未能获得改善贸易条款，降低了达成即将达成协议的可能性。"

"尽管如此，瑞士国家银行的定价仍然保持稳定，预计在7月份意外的关税驱动反弹后，额外降息的隐含概率不足50%。鸽派重新考虑的触发因素——以及瑞士法郎的再次抛售——可能是美国制药关税超出预期的额外负担，这些关税目前不包括在适用于瑞士的39%税率中，但预计将在下周宣布。"

"关于欧元/美元，我们今天的判断是中性，但风险平衡仍倾向于上行，甚至超过1.170。"

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