铜价有望上涨，因为宏观和微观因素终于趋于一致 – TDS

铜价有望上涨，因为宏观和微观因素终于趋于一致 – TDS

POPULAR ARTICLES

铜在贬值交易中容易受到影响，但这只是一个次要故事，TDS的高级商品策略师丹尼尔·加利指出

铜在贬值交易中面临风险，但这只是一个次要故事，TDS 高级商品策略师丹尼尔·加利（Daniel Ghali）指出。

紧张的库存和投资不足支撑铜价

“自 2021 年以来，宏观和微观在铜市场上首次不再对立。与史诗般的人工智能资本支出（AI capex）繁荣相关的宏观利好预计到 2027 年将每年增加大约 550 千吨的铜需求，为需求增长提供了重要的推动力，即使在考虑到与之相关的电力基础设施和电网所需的投资之前。”

“矿业供应的结构性投资不足使铜市场受到这些利好的制约。中国的五年计划进一步将人工智能竞赛置于其议程的首要位置，可能显著增强预期，因为经济学家开始估算所需的资本支出。”

“从微观结构的角度来看，美国关税的残余恐惧继续使全球库存池比正常情况下更紧张。只要关税威胁存在，美国就会让世界缺乏铜。放眼未来：贬值交易的解体将为铜价上涨提供理想的条件。”

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