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DXY：美元空头需要数据的动能 - 大华银行

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美元（USD）在鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的讲话后下跌。但美元的下跌并未创出新低。OCBC的外汇分析师Frances Cheung和Christopher Wong指出，DXY最后在98水平。

美元（USD）在鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的讲话后下跌。但美元的下跌并未创出新低。OCBC的外汇分析师Frances Cheung和Christopher Wong指出，DXY最后在98水平。

日线图上的温和看跌动能减弱

“价格走势反映出美联储转向的松口气，但与此同时，动能有所限制，因为鲍威尔没有明确承诺美联储降息的时机和轨迹。尽管如此，25个基点的降息已被定价为86%的概率。美元要显著回落，可能需要本周美国数据的疲软支持。

“周二和周五分别还有几位美联储官员威廉姆斯和沃勒的讲话。我们将关注数据或美联储讲话是否将降息25个基点的叙述转变为讨论9月FOMC的50个基点降息，或者今年降息的轨迹是否增加。美国数据疲软或美联储讲话中的鸽派言论应继续对美元施加压力。”

“日线图上的温和看跌动能减弱，而相对强弱指数（RSI）适度下降。短期内可能出现双向交易。阻力位在98.50（21日均线）、98.90（100日均线）、99.60水平。支撑位在97.60水平。”

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