There is still no news on the EU trade proposal to the US, but in our view, an EU–US trade deal is unlikely to have a significant directional impact on EUR/USD, which remains primarily tied to Fed and US data dynamics. However, in the absence of major data releases, markets may make some short-term adjustments should details of a draft deal emerge already today, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

EUR/USD may remain anchored around 1.170 for now

"On the European Central Bank front, communication has been quiet, particularly on the topic of euro strength, despite it featuring heavily in Sintra discussions. Interestingly, French Prime Minister François Bayrou called on the ECB to provide more support via looser monetary policy."

"While this is unlikely to sway the Governing Council directly, it might highlight growing unease among European leaders about the risks of keeping rates on hold for too long, especially with a strong euro weighing on exports."

"EUR/USD briefly dipped as low as 1.1670 yesterday, and while near-term risks look more balanced, if anything slightly skewed to the downside, the lack of fresh data suggests the pair may remain anchored around 1.170 for now."