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欧元：通胀支持欧洲央行的谨慎立场 – 荷兰国际集团

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根据我们的模型，欧元/美元仍然便宜，短期公允价值约为1.190。尽管法国地缘政治风险可能会阻碍欧元迅速与更强的利率差距重新连接，但荷兰国际集团外汇分析师Francesco Pesole指出，OAT表现不佳对欧元的影响可能已经结束。

根据我们的模型，欧元/美元仍然便宜，短期公允价值约为1.190。尽管法国地缘政治风险可能会阻碍欧元迅速与更强的利率差距重新连接，但荷兰国际集团外汇分析师Francesco Pesole指出，OAT表现不佳对欧元的影响可能已经结束。

在接下来的几天内回升至1.170是相当可能的

“昨日欧元区略高于预期的核心通胀数据（2.3%）使得两年期欧元掉期利率重新回到2.10%以上。到年底欧洲央行降息的隐含概率现在仅为三分之一。虽然我们认为这过于保守，但考虑到欧洲央行官员多次重申他们在利率方面处于良好状态，鸽派重新定价和任何负面欧元影响的显现可能需要一些时间。”

我们认为，今天在ESRB活动上，欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德的任何潜在政策评论都很可能会强化这种谨慎立场。我们认为，欧元/美元在昨日下跌后有一定的反弹空间，在接下来的几天内回升至1.170是相当可能的。”

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