TMGM Daily Market Breakfast: 2026-08-24

Morning Snapshot

• US-Canada trade talks collapsed, the United States imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian products on Saturday, and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said retaliatory tariffs will begin on September 8.
• Washington is preparing tougher sanctions on Iran and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is due to outline measures described as the toughest sanctions in history, while Iran has warned that Gulf oil exports could be disrupted if the economic pressure continues.
• Markets are awaiting Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech on Friday and the US July PCE Price Index on Wednesday, with attention also on long-end Treasury volatility and the Treasury’s recent buyback push.
• A separate market report said US Treasury buybacks and persistent Middle East tensions were weighing on sentiment at the start of the week.

Overview

The reporting window was dominated by trade, sanctions and policy-related developments across North America and the Middle East. The sharpest bilateral development came from North America, where US-Canada trade talks broke down, new US tariffs on some Canadian goods took effect, and Ottawa announced retaliatory tariffs from early September.

Geopolitical and energy-market attention remained focused on Iran, with multiple reports pointing to an imminent new US sanctions package targeting Iran and its trade partners. The measures were presented by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as an unprecedented escalation, while Iranian warnings over Gulf oil flows kept supply security in focus.

In US macro and policy news, attention shifted to the coming week’s calendar rather than a fresh decision, with markets looking ahead to the July PCE inflation release and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole appearance. The supplied reporting also highlighted ongoing volatility in longer-dated Treasuries and scrutiny of the Treasury’s recent buyback actions.

Trade & Policy Developments

US-Canada trade dispute escalates after talks collapse

US-Canada trade talks collapsed after negotiations broke down on Friday, and the United States imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian products on Saturday. In response, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada will begin retaliatory tariffs on September 8, according to the supplied reporting. The articles also stated that the breakdown pushed the bilateral relationship into a trade-war phase and became the main North American policy development in the reporting window.

Geopolitical Developments

US prepares tougher Iran sanctions as Tehran warns over Gulf oil flows

Multiple supplied reports said Washington is preparing a new sanctions package targeting Iran and its trade partners, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent scheduled to hold a press conference on the measures. Bessent was quoted as saying the United States would impose the toughest sanctions in history and described the campaign as an unprecedented effort at economic isolation. The reporting added that Iran warned no oil would flow from the Gulf if the economic war continues, while direct military strikes have eased in recent weeks and meaningful negotiations remain absent.

Separate report links Treasury buybacks and Middle East tensions to subdued risk sentiment

A separate supplied market report said US equity futures were subdued during European trading on Monday and cited two main factors: the US Treasury’s pledge of buybacks and persistent tensions in the Middle East. While the article did not provide fuller policy detail, it identified those developments as the key backdrop for sentiment at the start of the week.

Macroeconomics & Central Banks

Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech and US PCE data dominate the week ahead

The supplied reporting said markets are focused on two upcoming US events: the July Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index on Wednesday and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech on Friday at 10 a.m. ET. BNY’s Geoff Yu said core PCE year-on-year is expected to remain at 3.3%, but the larger focus is whether Warsh comments on the Treasury’s recent buyback push, the balance sheet, duration supply or term premium. The same report said long-end Treasury volatility remains elevated and noted that Canada’s GDP release on Friday is the only notable Canadian data point in the week covered by the article.

Scheduled Events

• US July Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index — Wednesday: The supplied reporting said the July PCE Price Index is due on Wednesday, with core PCE year-on-year expected to remain at 3.3%.
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Jackson Hole speech — Friday 10:00 a.m. ET: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver his first Jackson Hole speech, with the supplied reporting saying markets are focused on any comments about Treasury buybacks, the balance sheet, duration supply or term premium.
• US Treasury press conference on Iran sanctions — today: The supplied reporting said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to hold a press conference on new sanctions targeting Iran's trade partners.
• Canada GDP release — Friday: The supplied reporting identified Canada’s GDP release on Friday as the only notable Canadian data release in the week discussed.
• Canadian retaliatory tariffs begin — 2026-09-08: Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada’s retaliatory tariffs against the United States will start on September 8.

Closing Summary

The main developments in the reporting window were the escalation in the US-Canada trade dispute, the planned tightening of US sanctions on Iran and the associated focus on Gulf oil flows, and a US macro calendar led by July PCE data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech.