ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report a notable decline in global Aluminium production in April, driven largely by sharp cuts in Gulf output linked to the Iran conflict. While China’s production dipped month-on-month, it remains slightly higher year-on-year, with alumina supply diversion from the Middle East helping to cushion regional disruptions and support near-term Chinese output.

Global production pressured by Iran conflict

"Data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) show that the average daily global primary aluminium output declined to 197.4kt in April."

"Total monthly production for the metal fell 5.3% month-on-month (-2% year-on-year) to 5.92mt last month, reflecting reduced output across major producing regions."

"China’s aluminium production fell 3% month-on-month to 3.7mt in April, while year-to-date output stood at 14.7mt, up 1.6% year-on-year."

"Chinese smelters continue to benefit from alumina supply diversion away from the Middle East, which could support near-term production growth and mitigate regional supply disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions."

"Gulf region production dropped more sharply, down 29% MoM and 34.6% YoY to 330kt, its lowest level since November 2013."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)