• Bitcoin traded near $62,000 as investors maintain caution ahead of US inflation data, Fed testimony and second-quarter earnings reports.
• Bitcoin's recovery has been supported by thin liquidity, with declining spot volumes pointing to weak buying conviction.
• Bitcoin ETF flows recovered as trading volumes cooled, signaling cautious institutional accumulation rather than speculative buying.

Bitcoin traded near $62,000 on Monday, holding onto recent gains as investors adopted little conviction ahead of key macroeconomic reports this week.

Markets await US inflation data and Fed testimony

In a report on Monday, QCP analysts highlighted that Tuesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data could be the first major catalyst to decide the market's direction.

A softer-than-expected inflation reading could strengthen expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing later this year. On the other hand, another upside in CPI may reinforce the case for keeping interest rates higher for longer.

QCP also highlighted Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's upcoming two-day congressional testimony, where lawmakers are expected to question the central bank's independence, inflation strategy and policy outlook.

“Together, CPI and Warsh’s testimony are likely to set the tone for markets, with investors searching for greater clarity on the path of monetary policy,” the firm noted.

Beyond macroeconomic data, investors are also closely watching the start of second-quarter earnings season. Major US banks are set to report results this week before earnings broaden across the technology and financial sectors.

QCP noted that corporate earnings expectations remain high, with consensus forecasts pointing to the strongest year-over-year profit growth since 2021.

“Strong forward guidance will likely prove just as important in justifying current multiples and sustaining the rally,” the report states.

QCP noted that the longer-term outlook for crypto remains constructive, supported by institutional adoption, constrained Bitcoin supply and continued exchange-traded fund (ETF) participation.

“Should this week’s macro data and earnings continue to validate the bullish narrative, improving risk sentiment could spill over into digital assets as investors rotate into markets that have lagged the broader equity rally,” the firm stated.

Glassnode's data paints a similar picture. The firm noted that spot trading volume has fallen 21.5% while the spot cumulative volume delta has turned negative, indicating that BTC's recent recovery was not supported by strong liquidity.

In derivatives markets, traders continue to pay a premium to maintain long positions in BTC futures, reflecting a constructive outlook, although buy-side activity has cooled. Meanwhile, the options market remains cautious, with investors continuing to accumulate downside protection despite Bitcoin's recent recovery.

“Subdued spot participation, weak onchain activity and continued demand for downside protection suggest the market has yet to transition into a broad, conviction-led advance,” Glassnode stated.​

Bitcoin ETFs show signs of recovery with renewed accumulation

On the institutional side, Glassnode highlighted early signs of renewed institutional accumulation in US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Weekly net inflows have recovered following recent outflows and are now sitting comfortably above their lower statistical range, pointing to improving confidence among traditional finance investors.

"This influx of capital signals renewed confidence from TradFi investors, providing a constructive foundation for broader market liquidity and sentiment," Glassnode wrote.

However, weekly ETF trading volumes have cooled toward the lower end of their historical range, suggesting speculative activity has eased as institutions adopt a more measured approach.

Glassnode also noted that the ETF Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio remains close to equilibrium, indicating that most ETF investors are holding positions near their aggregate cost basis, with limited unrealized profits or losses creating pressure to either buy or sell.

Bitcoin traded at $61,922, down 3.3% over the past 24 hours at the time of writing.