National Bank Of Canada analysts Daren King and Jocelyn Paquet expect Canada’s January CPI to be unchanged on the month, pulling headline inflation down to 2.3% and trimming CPI-trim slightly, while CPI-median stays at 2.5%. They see December retail sales declining, a narrower trade deficit helped by Gold exports, modest manufacturing gains, stronger housing starts, and weaker existing home sales in major cities.

Softer inflation and uneven activity ahead

"In Canada, the main event will be the publication of the Consumer Price Index for January."

"The slight increase in gasoline prices during the month was probably not enough to move the needle, and the headline index likely remained unchanged."

"If we’re right, the annual rate could move down by one-tenth of a percentage point to 2.3%."

"Overall, headline goods expenditure is expected to have fallen by 0.5%."

"Total exports may therefore have expanded, and since we believe this gain was only partially offset by an increase in imports, the trade deficit may have narrowed from C$2.2 billion to C$1.4 billion."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)