National Bank Of Canada (NBC) analysts Taylor Schleich, Ethan Currie and Warren Lovely report that softer Canadian data, cooler inflation and rising trade uncertainty have sharply reduced the likelihood of 2026 Bank of Canada hikes. They now expect policy tightening to be delayed until at least early 2027, with status quo rates implying Canadian Government bond yields largely tread water while still outperforming global peers.

BoC delay and GoC curve outlook

"While we still see a path to 2026 Bank of Canada rate hikes, it has become much narrower and is no longer the most likely outcome."

"Instead, we now expect the central bank to put off tightening until at least early 2027."

"If the BoC were to concede that further cuts were needed, we wouldn’t expect that to come until late this year at the earliest."

"Status quo monetary policy is likely to mean bond yields tread water in 2026."

"From a risk management perspective, we continue to favour Canadian rates over global peers (i.e., treasuries, gilts, JGBs)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)