ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey describe a cautious backdrop for base metals, with Copper and Aluminium edging higher after reduced near-term geopolitical risk but ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure. They highlight demand pressure from high energy costs, supply disruptions supporting Aluminium, and rising supply risks for Copper from sulphuric acid shortages and China’s planned export suspension.

Copper and aluminium face supply risks

"Copper and aluminium edged higher yesterday after US President Donald Trump extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely, reducing near-term geopolitical risk."

"However, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with Tehran signalling it will not reopen the route while the US blockade persists."

"Signals across the metals complex remain mixed."

"Aluminium has found support from supply disruptions in the Middle East, which accounts for around 9% of global output."

"Copper supply faces growing risks, amid potential sulphuric acid shortages due to shipping disruptions and China’s planned export suspension from May."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)