• Trump extended his Iran deadline after Tehran skipped fresh talks, lifting risk appetite before US data took over.
• UK ILO Unemployment fell to 4.9% versus 5.2% expected, but the Claimant Count rose 26.8K against the 21.4K forecast.
• Wednesday's UK CPI release is the next major catalyst, with the headline expected to lift to 3.3% YoY from 3% prior.

GBP/USD slid 0.15% on Tuesday, settling close to 1.3500 after a volatile session that traded a roughly 60-pip range. Price unwound twice during European and US trade with sharp downside candles, only to bounce back off the lows on each occasion before recovering modestly into the close.

The Iran standoff drove the early tape after President Trump extended his self-imposed deadline for direct talks, with Tehran declining to send a delegation to the proposed venue. The White House framed the move as a final goodwill gesture, though traders read it as another postponement in a sequence of shifting positions. Risk appetite firmed at first, weighing on the US Dollar, before stronger-than-expected March Retail Sales (+1.7% MoM versus +1.4% forecast) and notably hawkish testimony from Fed Chair-designate Kevin Warsh pulled flows back into the Greenback through the US session.

Read more: Did Tehran snub the peace talks first?

On the Sterling side, March UK employment data offered a mixed read, with the ILO Unemployment Rate falling to 4.9% versus 5.2% consensus while the Claimant Count climbed 26.8K against the 21.4K forecast and 3M Employment Change slowed to 25K from 84K. Wages stayed firm, with Average Earnings (excluding bonus) at 3.6% YoY versus 3.5% expected. Wednesday's March Consumer Price Index (CPI) release is the headline event for the Pound this week, with consensus pointing to a 3.3% YoY headline print versus 3% previously and the Core measure forecast steady at 3.2%.

GBP/USD 15-minute chart

Technical Analysis

In the fifteen-minute chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3504, holding below the daily open at 1.3529 and keeping a mild bearish intraday tone as price action remains capped under that reference point. The Stochastic RSI hovers in the upper half of its range after rebounding from oversold territory, hinting at some corrective upside potential, but this momentum improvement so far only suggests consolidation rather than a clear shift in trend while the pair trades under the opening level.

On the topside, the day’s open at 1.3529 acts as immediate resistance and would need to be reclaimed to ease the current downward pressure and open the way for a more meaningful recovery. Until that barrier is surpassed, the lack of clearly defined nearby supports on the chart leaves the pair vulnerable to further dips, with traders likely watching prior intraday lows on shorter time frames for signs of basing.

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3504, holding a constructive near-term bias as it remains above both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) at 1.3424 and 1.3364 respectively. The short-term trend tone is supported by this stacked EMA configuration, though the Stochastic RSI hovering deep in overbought territory near 90 suggests upside momentum may be stretched and vulnerable to consolidation or a corrective pause.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50-day EMA around 1.3424, with a deeper floor reinforced by the 200-day EMA near 1.3364 if selling pressure extends. As long as spot holds above these moving averages on closing bases, pullbacks are likely to be treated as corrective within the broader advance, while overbought momentum readings hint that bulls may need to absorb a period of consolidation before attempting a sustained break higher.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)