Thu Lan Nguyen at Commerzbank has revised Gold forecasts higher, now seeing USD 5,000 per ounce by end-2026 and USD 5,200 next year, despite a recent 15% drop. The bank expects the Iran war to end in spring, US rate-hike expectations to correct, Fed cuts totaling 75 bps, and US real yields to fall, preserving Gold’s safe-haven appeal over time.

Safe-haven case intact longer term

"We have also adjusted our gold price forecast in light of recent developments."

"It may come as a surprise, however, that we have raised our price forecast for the end of this year and next year—from USD 4,900 per troy ounce to USD 5,000 per troy ounce by the end of this year, and from USD 4,800 per troy ounce to USD 5,200 per troy ounce by the end of next year."

"We therefore clearly do not believe that the recent, quite significant pullback is sustainable."

"We even expect the US Federal Reserve to resume its rate-cutting cycle at the end of this year and to lower its benchmark rate by a total of 75 basis points by the middle of next year."

"US real interest rates are likely to fall over the longer term, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)