• Gold holds modest gains on Thursday as investors monitor US-Iran nuclear talks.
• Geopolitical risks and tariff headlines keep Gold’s downside contained.
• Technically, a break above $5,200 is needed to resume the broader uptrend.

Gold (XAU/USD) trades with a mild upside bias on Thursday but remains confined within this week’s trading range as markets stay cautious ahead of key geopolitical developments. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $5,174 as bulls struggle to sustain gains above the $5,200 level.

The sideways price action reflects a lack of conviction among traders. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and lingering uncertainty surrounding US trade policies continue to underpin safe-haven demand, helping to contain the downside.

At the same time, fading expectations of near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts are acting as a mild headwind for the non-yielding metal.

Investors are positioning cautiously as the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks begins in Geneva. The discussions take place amid a significant US military build-up in the Middle East.

Tehran is reportedly seeking to avoid further escalation and has pledged “seriousness and flexibility,” stating that the talks will focus strictly on nuclear issues and sanctions relief.

A meaningful breakthrough could ease concerns about potential US military action and reduce the geopolitical risk premium embedded in Gold prices.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday that tariffs will be raised to 15% “where appropriate,” following the 10% levy that took effect on Tuesday after last week’s Supreme Court ruling against the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose reciprocal tariffs.

Traders are reassessing the Fed’s monetary policy path as policymakers remain concerned about sticky inflation. Markets widely expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged at the March and April meetings.

A June rate cut, previously seen as the most likely timing for the Fed to resume easing, now appears less certain. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see July as the more likely timing for the next rate cut, assigning a probability of around 66%.

The shift in expectations is lending near-term support to the US Dollar (USD) and keeping XAU/USD upside in check.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD builds base above $5,100, momentum cools

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD forming a base above the $5,100 handle. The near-term bias appears mildly bearish to neutral, though the broader uptrend remains intact as prices continue to print a sequence of higher highs and higher lows since bottoming near $4,400 following the sharp correction from record highs around $5,598.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased toward the mid-50s after retreating from overbought territory above 70, signaling fading upside momentum.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in negative territory, with the MACD line below the Signal line, pointing to a corrective pullback rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

Initial support is seen at $5,100, with a break below exposing the 100-period SMA near $5,025. A sustained move beneath this level could pave the way toward deeper support around $4,850.

On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $5,200-$5,250. A decisive break above this barrier would be needed to revive bullish momentum and potentially open the door toward the $5,500 region.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)