股票:随着波动性缓解,周期性上扬延续 – 丹斯克银行
丹麦研究团队报告称,全球股市延续涨势,美国市场领涨,周期性板块表现优于防御性和低波动性股票

丹斯克研究团队报告称,全球股市延续涨势,美国市场领涨,周期性板块表现优于防御性和低波动性股票。VIX指数已回落至20以下,亚洲股市和欧洲期货上涨,表明尽管地缘政治紧张局势持续,风险偏好依然坚韧。

周期股领涨,防御股回调

“昨日股市继续上涨,美国市场领跑,本周股市走势正逐渐呈现全面反转。我们看到周期性板块明显跑赢,而低波动/防御性股票则被大幅抛售。”

“随着VIX指数回落至20以下,这应再次提醒我们,在地缘政治噪音高企、宏观环境依然稳健以及周期末期的市场狂热时期,市场的行为特征尤为关键。这种环境下,行为因素变得至关重要,突显了在持续不断的突发新闻冲击下‘追涨杀跌’的风险。”

“尽管市场高度关注伊朗局势,但一个同样重要的主题正在悄然展开,影响股市及更广泛的资产配置,包括私募股权和私募信贷。即‘科技不再只是科技’。软件板块持续显著落后,昨日再次体现这一点:软件是表现最差的板块,而半导体则大幅跑赢,单日美国市场领先约4个百分点,欧洲市场领先约7个百分点。”

“放眼更广,这延续了我们数月前在《当科技颠覆科技》专题中强调的趋势。过去九个月,美国硬件行业表现最佳,软件表现最差,硬件相较软件的超额收益约为125个百分点(!)。”

“今晨,亚洲股市上涨,欧洲期货走高,而美国期货整体持平。”

(本文由人工智能工具协助生成,编辑审核。)

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