美联储:消费放缓影响前景 – 星展银行
星展集团研究首席经济学家 Taimur Baig 强调,在 2025 年强劲增长后,美国消费放缓的迹象。他指出,2025 年第四季度零售销售动能减弱,以及实时 GDP 估计的下调。

星展集团研究首席经济学家 Taimur Baig 强调了在 2025 年强劲增长后,美国消费放缓的迹象。他指出,2025 年第四季度零售销售动能减弱,以及实时 GDP 估计的下调。Baig 认为,美国家庭基本面依然稳健,并预计美联储将在 2026 年下半年实施两次 25 个基点的降息,尽管通胀仍高于目标。

美国需求、GDP 预测和美联储降息

"美国是一个消费强国,尽管仅占全球人口的 4.2%,却占全球消费的近 30%。"

"2025 年的消费增长令人印象深刻,但在查看 2025 年第四季度的数据时,早期放缓的迹象开始显现。"

"这一发展的影响在实时 GDP 估计中得以体现。"

"消费趋势放在背景中来看,并不显得令人担忧。"

"我们预计今年将有两次美联储降息,一次在第三季度,一次在第四季度。"

(本文由人工智能工具生成,并经过编辑审核。)

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