美元/日元：接近160的过度延伸增加日本央行风险 – 星展银行

美元/日元：接近160的过度延伸增加日本央行风险 – 星展银行

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星展集团研究部的Philip Wee认为，美元/日元在测试日本160的痛点时显得过度延伸。该货币对受到美日利差的支撑，但市场目前预计日本央行（BoJ）4月28日加息的概率约为三分之二。

星展集团研究部的Philip Wee认为，美元/日元在测试日本160的痛点阈值时显得过度延伸。该货币对受到美日利差的支撑，但市场目前预计日本银行（BoJ）4月28日加息的概率约为三分之二。政策制定者越来越认为，日元的持续疲软对家庭构成了成本推动型通胀威胁。

日元疲软与日本银行鹰派转向相撞

“美元/日元在测试日本政策制定者的160痛点阈值时显得过度延伸。”

“市场处于支持美元/日元的美日利差利好与对日本银行4月28日加息预期（67%概率）增加之间的拉锯。”

“在东京，政策共识日益明朗，长期的日元疲软曾被视为出口商和日经225指数的利好，但现在已成为侵蚀家庭购买力的主要成本推动型通胀威胁。”

“日本银行的短观调查也强化了这一鹰派转变，强调了通胀预期，同时表明企业信心足以吸收25个基点的加息而不至于将经济推入衰退。”

（本文借助人工智能工具生成，并由编辑审核。）

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