墨西哥：潜在增长以下，宽松政策推迟 – 法国兴业银行

墨西哥：潜在增长以下，宽松政策推迟 – 法国兴业银行

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法国兴业银行（Societe Generale）的Dev Ashish预测，墨西哥2026年的增长将低于潜力，受制造业疲软、投资不足和USMCA相关不确定性的制约。预计油价上涨将传导至通胀，提升通胀风险和预期。

法国兴业银行（Societe Generale）的Dev Ashish预测，墨西哥2026年的增长将低于潜力，受制造业疲软、投资不足和USMCA相关不确定性的制约。预计油价上涨将传导至通胀，推高通胀风险和预期。墨西哥央行（Banxico）目前被描述为鸽派，但可能将进一步宽松推迟到2027年，同时不断增加的社会支出限制了财政整合，尽管预算目标可实现。

低于潜力的增长与谨慎的墨西哥央行

“增长：2026年增长因制造业疲软、投资不足及USMCA相关不确定性而低于潜力。”

“通胀：预计油价传导将推高通胀风险和预期。”

“货币政策：墨西哥央行目前保持鸽派立场，但可能将进一步宽松推迟至2027年。”

“财政：预算目标可实现，但不断增加的社会支出限制了财政整合。”

“风险：油价、美国经济放缓及USMCA不确定性威胁通胀和增长路径。”

（本文由人工智能工具协助生成，编辑审核。）

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