New Zealand Dollar: Rangebound versus US Dollar on RBNZ repricing – BBH
By FXStreet Insights Team
Updated: 25 May 2026
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Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the RBNZ to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% this week, while swaps price 125 bps of tightening over the next year.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the RBNZ to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% this week, while swaps price 125 bps of tightening over the next year. Haddad anticipates the updated OCR track will signal a more muted cycle and sees scope for lower New Zealand rate expectations, keeping NZD/USD confined to a 0.5800-0.6000 range.
Muted tightening path caps New Zealand Dollar
"The RBNZ is widely expected to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% for a third straight meeting."
"The swaps market implies a 25bps RBNZ rate hike at the July 8 meeting, and a total of 125bps of tightening over the next twelve months to 3.50%."
"The RBNZ updated OCR path will likely remain consistent with a more muted tightening cycle, totaling 75bps of hikes by 2029."
"Bottom line: scope for a downward adjustment to NZ rate expectations is a headwind for NZD."
"NZD/USD should continue to trade within a narrow 0.5800-0.6000 range in the near term."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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