Rabobank analysts underline rising geopolitical risk around Iran that could affect Oil markets. While a second round of US–Iran talks ended constructively, analysts note ongoing military build-up, threats around the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s domestic calculations. Report recalls past conflict after similar offers, implying persistent tail risks for energy supply and regional stability.

Strait of Hormuz tensions and supply risk

"Meanwhile, the second round of US-Iran talks ended with the Iranians smiling and talking about deals within reach, and a third round pencilled in for two weeks from now to close gaps."

"However, the US is still surging military equipment to the region; Iran also insulted and threatened the US yesterday, partially closing the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the 1980s; and both regional reports and Vice President Vance underlined that Tehran is playing for time while it tries to regain control of its restless population, and is ignoring core US demands."

"Recall in 2025, Iran offered the US the same deal it’s offering now – and got bombed."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)