铜：目前供应过剩，未来供需紧张且价格高企 – 德国商业银行

铜：目前供应过剩，未来供需紧张且价格高企 – 德国商业银行

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德国商业银行（Commerzbank）的芭芭拉·兰布雷希特指出，2026年第一季度全球铜市场出现大幅过剩，尤其是在中国和刚果（金）精炼产量激增。

德国商业银行（Commerzbank）的芭芭拉·兰布雷希特（Barbara Lambrecht）指出，2026年第一季度全球铜市场出现大幅过剩，精炼产量激增，尤其是在中国和刚果（金）。需求增长不足1%，但兰布雷希特预计这一情况将逆转，消费增强和生产增长放缓将支撑价格，预计年底铜价目标为每吨14,000美元。

从第一季度过剩到市场收紧

“然而，在第一季度，全球铜市场仍处于良好状态。得益于精炼铜产量的急剧上升，国际铜业研究组织报告称供应过剩近40万吨——是2025年第一季度的三倍。”

“不过，我们认为供需双方的趋势将会逆转。预计需求动能将增强，而生产增长将放缓，这反过来将在中期内支撑铜价。”

“到年底，我们预计铜价将达到每吨14,000美元。”

（本文借助人工智能工具撰写，并由编辑审核。）

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