TD Securities’ Chief US Macro Strategist Oscar Munoz argues that 2026 US labor data suggest Artificial Intelligence is only modestly affecting employment so far. He highlights that AI adoption remains low across industries and concentrated in large, knowledge-intensive firms. Munoz notes that recent weakness in certain sectors and youth unemployment appears more cyclical, with 2026 data hinting at cyclical green shoots.

AI effects confined and cyclical

"The 2026 jobs data might be indicating that AI is already having an impact on employment conditions. However, evidence suggests disruption remains limited and contained within a very small slice of the US labor market."

"Recent surveys underscore adoption remains low across industries –18% of firms– and in those segments where adoption is high (large firms/knowledge-intensive sectors) the scope of use remains narrow."

"According to Gallup, "both AI-adopting and non-adopting organizations report a similar net trend toward workforce expansion overall." In other words, adoption doesn't necessarily translate to job losses on net."

"That's not to say that there won't be rumblings in sectors that are more organically exposed to AI synergies like information where the turnover data already show soft dynamics in 2026."

"While AI could be having a marginal impact in some sectors, the 2026 data might be actually pointing to cyclical green shoots in the labor market."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)