ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Chris Turner and Frantisek Taborsky note the Dollar is rallying again, supported by strong US data and Federal Reserve expectations despite sharply lower Oil prices. They argue tomorrow’s FOMC under new Chair Kevin Warsh is a key crossroads for FX, with markets shifting focus from energy to central bank communication and the US‑Iran deal leaving questions over the durability of the recent Oil sell-off.

Fed expectations keep Dollar supported

"The dollar is rallying again, displaying strong fundamental backing (data, Fed) despite sharply lower oil prices."

"The first 36 hours of trading after the US-Iran deal point to a structurally stronger dollar than a few weeks ago."

"This puts tomorrow’s FOMC firmly in focus for FX."

"The dollar can stay resilient, but needs a nod from policymakers (especially from new Chair Kevin Warsh) that rate hikes are a real possibility."

"This keeps questions around the durability of the oil sell-off open, and FX markets are, for now, reluctant to fully price in that optimism."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)